After Andy Burnham’s storming by-election victory last month, our esteemed colleague Christopher Herman wrote a piece speculating what his administration might mean for industry. A few weeks on, we have now heard directly from the horse’s mouth via a range of forums, including a major speech, media interviews, op-eds and even a Reddit Q&A. Whilst there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in terms of the makeup of his cabinet, at College Green Group we have already started putting the pieces together to understand the direction of travel for business.
Defence
Let’s start with one of Burnham’s most recent contributions to public debate, coming in the form of an article in The Times newspaper. While his first major policy speech contained relatively little on foreign affairs and defence, his piece in The Times included commitments to strengthening Britain’s defence capabilities and reaffirmed his support for NATO, alongside closer ties with our European allies.
For business, the most significant aspect of the article was the direct link Burnham drew between national security and economic security. He pledged to back British firms through increased defence investment, arguing that doing so will boost areas that have been left behind in recent years. This investment, he argued, would span a range of sectors, “from shipbuilding and energetics to AI and quantum”.
Underlying this is a broader ambition to reduce Britain’s reliance on foreign companies. The message echoed the speech he delivered at the end of June, in which he committed to prioritising British firms for government contracts wherever possible, ahead of overseas competitors. As defence companies prepare to gather at the Farnborough Air Show next week, there will surely be a sense of anticipation in the air about the opportunities which may lie ahead for them over the next few years.
Social value
Burnham’s big policy speech on 29 June still left a few unanswered questions about his vision for the country, but one line in particular stood out: “We will make sure that all eligible public contracts are subject to proper social value weighting.” While this will be music to the ears of certain businesses, others will undoubtedly be considering what it could mean for their competitiveness in future procurement processes.
Perhaps, though, this should not come as a surprise. During his time as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham launched the £1 billion Good Growth Fund, which, alongside acting as a significant investment in local infrastructure, placed a strong emphasis on delivering wider social benefits.
Any business, whether a large multi-national or SME, will need to focus on developing a clear and credible social value strategy if it wants to be in contention for big government contract wins in the years ahead. That means demonstrating how investment will create jobs, support local supply chains, develop skills, improve opportunities for underrepresented groups and contribute to regional growth agendas. For firms hoping to benefit from increased government spending, particularly in sectors such as defence, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, social value will move from a desirable add-on to a core commercial requirement.
Built environment
On housing, in his speech Burnham set out an ambitious vision, stating that “No10 North will oversee the biggest council house building programme since the post-war period”. Burnham argues that increased urban housebuilding, coupled with reforms to business rates, will help regenerate town centres and high streets across the country. It’s certainly a bold pledge, but questions remain over his strategy to deliver it.
Burnham has offered some clarity on land use. He has suggested that development will focus on vacant public land, while also committing to protecting the green belt from development. That position is likely to reassure many local communities and planning committees, but it will inevitably raise questions about whether sufficient land exists to meet his housing ambitions.
So where does this leave developers under a Burnham government? Clearly, those reliant on green field sites will find the planning environment becoming more challenging.
Devolution
Burnham has made his devolutionary ambitions clear, but whether they amount to more than symbolism will depend on how he chooses to organise government. As former Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill argues, machinery-of-government decisions are the first and most consequential policy choices any new prime minister makes, often taken before a government properly exists. For Burnham, whose central promise is to move power out of the centre, that choice is everything. No 10 North will either rewire the way government operates or simply relocate a handful of desks while leaving the wiring intact.
The businesses and organisations that map the new terrain first will help set the terms rather than react to them. These choices will shape the political and policy landscape long before the first major legislation reaches Parliament. History suggests that once institutions and decision-making structures become embedded, changing them becomes considerably harder.
Treating mayors and combined authorities as decision-makers in their own right, rather than merely waystations to Whitehall, will become increasingly important. Equally, organisations should assess every proposal against the “Makerfield test”: initiatives that can demonstrate tangible value in the places Burnham has staked his premiership on are likely to travel much further than those pitched solely to the traditional centre.
Making plans
Burnham has, of course, outlined his vision in a number of other areas too. He has expressed a desire to change the culture of Parliament, advocating for a less aggressive whipping operation and giving MPs greater freedom to vote according to their convictions. Elsewhere, he has set out a vision of greater public ownership across major utilities, including water, energy and transport. On education, Burnham has called for a shift away from an overreliance on university pathways and towards apprenticeships and other technical qualifications. He has even floated the prospect of pints of beer returning to football terraces…
A change in Prime Minister invariably brings a period of uncertainty, but it also creates opportunities for those able to anticipate the direction of travel early. In terms of Burnham’s policy agenda, greater clarity will emerge over the coming weeks and months through cabinet appointments and the first budget. For businesses, the window to understand these shifts and position accordingly is now.
At College Green, we are already joining the dots between today’s rhetoric and tomorrow’s policy, helping our clients and prospective partners prepare for what comes next. Our role is to help organisations understand the implications of political change for their sector, identify emerging opportunities and risks, and position themselves effectively in a rapidly evolving policy environment.
Want to stay ahead of the curve? Get in touch with us today.
