The announcement of the landslide victory of Mark Carney in the Liberal Party’s leadership race may come as a surprise to few, but the new Canadian Prime Minister’s background, as an unelected ‘finance guy’ with little direct political experience, makes him an unlikely candidate for the role, particularly as Canada stands at the precipice of an all-out trade war with its closest ally. Now, with Carney having called a snap election for 28 April, the country will soon determine whether his leadership can extend beyond his initial appointment. To understand the rise of Carney, however, it is crucial to recognise that it is exactly this historic moment, when Canadian politics has been turned on its head, which has given way to his propulsion to the highest office of the land.
Mark Carney’s journey
The 59 year-old father of four started out in the remote town of Fort Smith in Canada’s Northwest Territories but was raised in Edmonton, Alberta. He was educated at Harvard University after gaining a scholarship, where he was known for his goalkeeping skills on the ice hockey team, before moving to Oxford University where he obtained his PhD in economics.
Carney initially worked in the private sector for Goldman Sachs in their offices around the world, before joining the public sector in 2003 and working his way up to the governor of the Bank of Canada by 2007, shortly before the financial crash and the deep recession which then hit Canada.
It was his handling of this period that drew attention to his management skills in helping the country avoid the worst of the crisis, and he was subsequently appointed governor of the Bank of England in 2013, becoming the first non-British person to hold the role in its over 300 years of history. He faced further financial challenges in this position, including the pound’s sharp decline following Brexit and the beginnings of the pandemic in his final weeks on the job.
Since leaving the role in 2020, he has taken on a series of roles in the public and private sectors, and has become an outspoken advocate for environmental sustainability.
From political outsider to political leader
In recent months, he has been serving as Justin Trudeau’s special economics adviser, but it was not until the soon-to-be former Prime Minister stepped down in January, facing low poll numbers and criticism from within his own party, that Carney publicly declared any intent to run for public office.
The leadership race pitted him against long-time friend Chrystia Freeland, who had seemed an obvious replacement as deputy PM, but Carney ran a seamless campaign that pitched himself as Canada’s best hope of taking on US President Donald Trump.
Since taking office in January, Trump has upended the long history of US-Canadian relations, declaring Canada the 51st American state and initiating a trade war between the two close allies. Currently, according to the Canadian government, US$2.5bn worth of goods and services cross the US-Canada border every day. Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods puts this at great risk, and Canada therefore closely retaliated with 25% tariffs of certain US goods until the US tariffs were removed, with further tariffs not ruled out.
Why him? Why now?
It was Carney’s positioning in response to this challenge that seems to have set him apart as a leader capable of taking on Trump. At a time when the Canadian population faces economic uncertainty and chaos, his promises of further tariffs on the US until the “Americans show us some respect,” as he declared in his victory speech, have provided the strength many Canadians are seeking in response to the attacks being levelled at them from across their southern border.
His promises to resist the US “with their wallets” have been particularly effective due to Carney’s long history of managing financial crises such as these. At this moment, his lack of experience in political office is seen as inconsequential when compared with his hands-on experience managing economic turbulence, and he has been able to present himself as the person best equipped to steer the country through one of Canada’s toughest economic challenges to date.
Trump’s aspirations toward Canada as its 51st state have also rallied the Canadians around another key issue that Carney has been able to address, sovereignty. In his winning speech, he made a clear break from Trump’s aspirations of acquiring Canada, declaring that “Canada will never, ever be part of America”. Similarly to his economic experience, Carney has been able to campaign on his experience of working with Trump during his time at the Bank of England and his regular attendance at G20 meetings. This established him as a key player on the global stage, capable of taking on the unpredictability of Trump.
As an outspoken advocate for ESG principles and one of the world’s leaders in this movement, Carney’s appointment also provides an opportunity for environmental issues to regain prioritisation on the global stage. Back in 2016, Carney gave a particularly memorable speech in the world of banking, warning global investors and politicians alike about the dangers of investing in unsustainable business, as well as the potential for an economic Armageddon if this was not rectified. Later, in 2022, Carney played a role in the creation of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero which advocates for the renouncement of fossil fuels. This key part of Carney’s history again stands in direct opposition to Trump who has been instigating a huge push back on ESG-related commitments since taking office.
Essentially, it was Carney’s positioning as the ultimate anti-Trump figure which seeded his victory amongst the Liberals. With the party looking for a leader who could strengthen the country’s economy and stand up to the US, Carney’s perceived experience and competence was able to outshine his status as a political outsider.
The Trump effect
In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to note Carney’s popularity when it comes under judgement from the country as a whole in the upcoming elections, which he has now officially called for 28 April. Up until recently, the Conservative party, headed by Poilievre, had looked set to sweep the board. However, the significant changes in challenges facing Canada since Trump has taken office have meant a distinct narrowing in the Conservatives’ lead in the polls. Sovereignty is now deemed the defining issue of the election, highlighting the shift in voter priorities that Trump’s threats have instigated, and perhaps a change in leadership they are therefore searching for.
