This article originally appeared on Freiheit Macht Politik.
During the festive period at the end of 2024, a political row broke out between Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the new Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch. The former UKIP chief announced that Reform’s membership had officially overtaken that of the Conservatives, whose current membership now stands at 131,000. This claim was hotly denied in a public spat between the two leaders over Christmas and Boxing Day. Nevertheless, the rise in Reform membership is a remarkable achievement given that both the Conservative and Labour parties have experienced dramatic membership declines since 2021. Since 2017, Labour’s membership has collapsed from 564,000 to 309,000. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party, which achieved 200,000 members in 2021, now sits at 131,000.
To answer how political parties can stay relevant in today’s modern age, consider that both parties experienced the most dramatic declines in membership when led by less charismatic, more managerial centrist figures. A spokesperson for the left-wing group Momentum blamed the decline on “the deliberate decisions of the Labour leadership to reject the transformative, popular policies necessary to rebuild Britain… attack[ing] pluralism and the rights of party members in order to weaken the left and threaten independent-minded voices within the party.”
On the flip side, when Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour leader, the party’s membership tripled. When Boris Johnson won the Conservative contest, the membership saw its largest single-year rise since 1948. However, November’s leadership election that saw Kemi Badenoch anointed as the sixth leader since 2016 confirmed the party’s continued decline. Even insiders admit this is a problem. One Shadow Cabinet member said, “We need more members and we need more supporters who are willing to campaign for us on the ground. In the General Election, we were often outgunned on the ground by Labour—particularly as they have a younger and more mobile volunteer network—and that is another task for Conservative Central Headquarters (CCHQ).” As Professor of Politics Tim Bale of Queen Mary University notes, the Conservatives have been anxious about their membership since the 1950s, as it is difficult to boost party membership except in exceptional circumstances.
This is part of a broader trend occurring over a number of years and involves numerous factors aside from the personality of party leaders. This article assesses the following factors: 1) greater fragmentation; 2) the increasing rise of regional issues; 3) a greater generational divide; and 4) the aftermath of Brexit.
Polarisation and fragmentation
Despite occasional polls, both Labour and the Conservatives look likely to continue dominating the political landscape, but each faces significant challenges. The Conservatives face the fundamental challenge posed by Reform UK and its brand of conservatism, which appeals not only to younger voters but also to the types of Conservative voters Boris Johnson won in 2019. Meanwhile, Labour—following an anticlimactic election result that saw it shed seats to Independents and lose support among Muslim, Black, Asian, and minority ethnic communities as well as youth—continues to reposition itself as the face of moderation capable of effecting change.
Another key issue for both parties is the fragmentation of the political system. Smaller parties now hold an unprecedented number of seats in Westminster, and polls indicate that they consistently achieve 40% of the national vote combined, compared to the 60% shared between the Conservatives and Labour. Voting driven by single issues (such as Gaza or the climate) may bolster the growth of Independents, the Worker’s Party, or the Green Party at Labour’s expense, while the Conservatives face a significant soul-searching exercise on whether to appease their somewhat timid Cameronite base—which flocked to the Liberal Democrats—or try to capture the bulk of Reform UK’s support.
Most experts agree that smaller parties will continue to make bigger gains at the expense of the larger parties in the upcoming local elections in May 2025. This is significant, as these elections will be the first test of national opinion since the General Election in July 2024. The rise of smaller parties is a trend unlikely to be reversed in 2025.
The dog that (continues) to bark
Say what you like, but Brexit remains a key reason why the Conservatives stand in a weak position. The party will always have the mantle of delivering Brexit, yet it has also left a recent footprint of economic mismanagement in many voters’ minds. For Labour, Brexit has and continues to be a complicated issue—many die-hard ‘remain’ voters see Starmer’s position on UK relations with the EU as insufficiently pro-European. This has further intensified intra-national divisions. The prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum still looms while the SNP remains in power in Holyrood. In Wales, Plaid Cymru has recently overtaken Labour in polls for next year’s Welsh Assembly election—with Reform barely ahead of Labour, too. The election of Donald Trump as US President in November’s elections will only intensify the pressure on Keir Starmer and the new Labour Government to decide between closer ties with Trump and the Republicans in the US or a reset with the EU and its closest political neighbours.
Winning the online space
With Reform and the Liberal Democrats storming ahead on TikTok, social media will continue to play a critical role in campaigning and shaping political discourse. Online platforms are increasingly relied upon for engagement, fundraising, and mobilising voters. However, as has been worryingly witnessed, these platforms also bring challenges—including the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and issues such as online harassment. This prompts calls to regulate tech platforms, which in turn provokes fierce debates on free speech, especially in the era of culture wars.
As online activism becomes a greater force in British politics, these agendas could become increasingly grassroots-led by digital communities. The result is the emergence of political forces that are less structured but highly organised—on issues such as climate change, racial justice, or economic inequality—which could have significant consequences for wider support and representation in Parliament.
Socio-economic challenges
Nigel Farage’s message during the election campaign—that despite the higher taxes we are paying, nothing works—resonated with many voters. This simple but effective message directly attacked high prices for basic goods, the lack of affordable housing, poor public services, crumbling social welfare, and failing infrastructure. Poll after poll finds that the British public is not confident that either the Conservative or Labour Party will be able to solve these monumental problems. How parties tackle these issues may involve significant changes in reshaping their platforms. As we have seen, diluting or tempering political ideology at a time when many voters expect bold, radical action can cost them significant support.
There are also growing concerns about economic inequality, wealth disparity, and the cost of social mobility, all of which are forcing parties to rethink their platforms. Labour will likely continue to focus on wealth redistribution and public sector investment, while the Conservatives may lean toward market-based solutions—although Brexit may have weakened their appeal in some areas. It is important to recognise that if parties are to remain relevant, they must carefully frame their responses to these key issues. They should communicate in language that resonates with people—like people, not robots—and be prepared to be bold in addressing these challenges.
Electoral reform
Finally, for the main political parties to remain relevant, they must acknowledge that the electoral landscape has dramatically changed. The last election highlighted this shift. For example, one party received only 34% of the popular vote yet secured 63% of the seats, while another party, despite garnering 14% of the vote, ended up with just 0.8% of the seats. Moreover, 30% of the votes cast in July’s election were not for the Conservatives, Labour, or Liberal Democrats. This disparity indicates that voters are seeking alternatives—whether it is right-wing populism from Reform UK, a focus on climate change from the Green Party, or more nationalist policies from Plaid Cymru and the SNP.
There is a growing debate over the fairness of the UK’s ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system, especially as smaller parties and regional groups gain more ground. Calls for proportional representation or other electoral reforms could gain traction if voters feel that the current system no longer reflects the diversity of political opinions in the UK. It may be like turkeys voting for Christmas, but the main parties might wish to stay relevant by hitching their wagons to this popular initiative that makes people feel their votes count.
Additionally, in the devolved assemblies, there may be continued calls for further powers to regions—particularly in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—where support for independence or greater autonomy is growing. This could reshape the structure of the UK’s political parties as regional identities increasingly clash with a centralized government. For example, current projections suggest that no party is set to have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, or in the Welsh, Northern Irish, or London assemblies. Latest aggregates of polling indicate that the composition of each could produce very different results.
The future of political parties in the UK will likely involve increasing fragmentation, with traditional parties evolving and new ones gaining influence. While the Conservative and Labour Parties will continue to play a dominant role, regional and issue-based parties are likely to rise in prominence. The political landscape will be shaped by generational shifts, Brexit’s aftermath, and growing concerns about economic inequality, social justice, and climate change. The UK’s political system may also face pressure for reform as voters demand more inclusivity and representation in a rapidly changing society.
