Polling data since we stepped into 2025 has been nothing short of exciting. These snapshots in time have attracted more attention and carried more weight than at any time since 2010 – the last time talk of ‘three party politics’ was this widespread. At the time of writing, Reform has led or drawn even in a dozen opinion polls this year – for context, Labour lead or have tied in 20 surveys released, whilst the Conservatives have only pulled ahead in two. Some of this data has stemmed from some of the most reputable names in the polling industry – Opinium, YouGov, and Techne UK. It is this that has sent chills down many spines on the Conservative and Labour benches.
A different type of momentum
Since the general election in July 2024, Reform’s support appears to have almost doubled – from 14.3% to an average of approximately 26.0%. This is an unprecedented moment in modern British politics. There have only ever been two other occasions in post-1997 UK politics in which parties which were not Labour or Conservative have led the opinion polls – in 2010 and the height of ‘Clegg-mania’, and 2019 when the Liberal Democrats and the then-Brexit Party swapped the polling lead. However, what makes this moment more significant is how long it has been sustained for. The 2010 Liberal Democrat bump (where it received the same level of support in the polls) only lasted 22 days from the date of the first Prime Ministerial Debate on ITV to the general election. Meanwhile, the 2019 post-European Parliament election churn lasted just a fortnight.
Compare these with Reform UK’s current levels of support that have been sustained for almost two months. It seems clear that unlike these historical incidents, what we are seeing now is a much more meaningful shift which could be a symptom for more fundamental long-term change.
An outlier or a trend?
Far from being an outlier, these numbers align with a broader trend. Polling aggregates now find that Reform leads Labour and the Conservatives. While these figures remain within the margin of error, they nonetheless raise alarm bells in Downing Street, especially considering Labour won a landslide just months ago with 33.7% of the vote. Electoral Calculus puts the probability that Reform UK wins a plurality or majority of seats in the Commons at 19% – compared to the Conservatives’ 13%. Meanwhile, 27% of betting odds on who would be the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer were for Nigel Farage, while just 11% were for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
For Badenoch, these numbers spell grave trouble – especially as she passes her 100 day mark and looks ahead to local elections in just three months’ time. A recent YouGov poll reveals that nearly a quarter (24%) of those who voted Conservative in July would now back Reform. Additionally, 43% of 2024 Conservative voters support a merger between the two parties, though only 31% oppose the idea. Meanwhile, Badenoch’s favorability ratings have dropped from -25 to -29, putting her behind Farage, whose ratings have improved – making him the most popular party leader in the country. Keir Starmer fares even worse, with a net favorability of -36.
Not only does Badenoch have to contend with poor polling numbers and a low favourability, but she also has to bear the mantle of being the leader that oversaw the Conservatives fall into third place in party membership – behind Reform UK (ahead by almost 80,000 with its 207,000 subscribers at the time of writing), and Labour’s 309,000 – down from around 550,000 in 2017. Badenoch famously accused Reform of faking their numbers, insisting it was “coded up to tick automatically”, however later received verification from various media outlets including Sky News, the Telegraph and the Financial Times who confirmed that Reform’s membership was accurate.
These numbers have reignited debates within Conservative ranks about a potential merger with Reform, a move Badenoch has repeatedly dismissed. While 43% of Tory voters back such an alliance, Reform supporters are more divided, with 40% against and only 31% in favour.
Farage has wasted no time capitalising on Reform’s momentum, boldly declaring his party to be the true opposition to Labour. At a Farmers to Action event in London, he dismissed the Conservatives as a spent force, arguing that Reform is the only party actively challenging the government. “We are now the opposition to the Labour government, and I think the Tories’ days are numbered,” he claimed. He also ruled out any electoral pact with the Conservatives, flatly denying reports of a potential alliance.
Where is this support stemming from
There are three primary factors at play. First, voter apathy is at an all-time high. Nearly a million former Conservative voters now say they are unsure how they would vote – a shift that benefits Reform not necessarily due to its own gains but because of the collapse of its rivals. Second, a significant number of non-voters from the last election – around 3.4 million – now indicate they might vote for Reform. If an election were held today, these two groups could account for nearly half of Reform’s total vote share. Finally, Reform is attracting support that its effective predecessor, UKIP, never could – younger male voters.
While most of its supporters remain older men, Reform is gaining ground with younger voters, especially men aged 18-24. Key to this growth is Reform UK’s strong social media presence, particularly on TikTok, where the party has more followers than any major political group. In a shift that could signal a significant change in British politics, young men who once leaned towards Labour are now backing Reform UK. While some believe this trend is temporary, it hints at a broader change in the political landscape. If the major parties fail to win back these voters, Reform will continue to grow. Take a look below at the graph to see how the parties have performed with this age group since 2019.
Unlike other countries, such as Canada and Germany, where support for right-wing parties among young people is strong, Britain has seen traditionally low conservative backing from this demographic. Yet, Reform UK has found success in attracting these younger voters, mainly through its strong online presence. With 60% of TikTok users being Gen Z, Reform has made significant inroads, boasting over 350,000 followers—more than Labour and the Conservatives combined. Farage’s personal TikTok account boasts over a million followers, with two-thirds under 35.
Young people, particularly Gen Z, have grown up in an environment of economic uncertainty. The rising cost of education, a competitive job market, and the housing crisis have left many feeling disillusioned. This sense of abandonment by the political establishment has led them to seek alternatives, and Reform UK has connected with young men by offering a platform where their concerns are heard.
Additionally, Reform is hoovering up support from voters who are within the social classes of C2, D and E. For reference, this is who these letters refer to:
- Social Class C1 – Skilled workers.
- Social Class C2 – Semi-skilled workers.
- Social Class D/E – Low-skilled workers / those who are unemployed.
This group has had a diverse history – supporting Labour in 2010, 2015 (which also saw UKIP attract a significant amount of support from these groups), and in 2017. However, in 2019 the Conservatives completely reversed decades of Labour securing this voter bloc to win C2, D, and E class voters by a historic amount. Keir Starmer reversed this in 2024 securing 33% of this bloc, compared with the Conservatives’ 23% and Reform’s 20%. However, since this election Reform has continued at pace to court and win over these voters’ hearts and minds. Here is a graph to demonstrate how well the parties have performed with this socio-economic bloc of voters since 2019.
Support over the border(s)
Reform UK is gaining notable momentum in Scotland, with recent polling indicating that the party could play a pivotal role in deciding the next Holyrood government – this is a far cry from UKIP’s dismal showing north of the border, even during its high moments. Following Reform’s securing of 7% of the vote in Scotland at last year’s general election (where it overtook the Conservatives in 25 seats), the party is now focusing more on its Scottish infrastructure. At its first Scottish conference in Perth, deputy leader Richard Tice expressed optimism, stating that Reform could become the third-largest party in the Scottish Parliament.
In recent local elections, Reform achieved between 12% and 25% of first preferences in areas like Aberdeenshire and Glasgow. According to polling expert Sir John Curtice, the party’s continued rise could see it win up to 12 MSPs at the next Holyrood election, potentially overtaking the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats. This could disrupt the balance of power in Edinburgh, making it difficult for either pro-independence or unionist parties to form a majority government.
In Westminster polls and polling sub-samples in Scotland, Reform has actually pushed the Conservatives into fourth place – and has led the party in every survey conducted so far this year. Now, the most recent poll has found that Reform and Scottish Labour are level – with the party just one point behind at 17% to Scottish Labour’s 18%. This is a dramatic and unimaginable shift from the days of UKIP.
In Wales, Reform has set its sights on forming a government following the 2026 Senedd election, with its Welsh spokesperson Oliver Lewis confident that winning 20 to 40 seats is feasible. The party, which has no representation in the Senedd, plans to capitalise on the newly proportional electoral system. In the 2024 general election, Reform secured 17.0% of the vote across Wales, outperforming Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.
Recent polling for the 2026 elections, which puts Reform ahead of Labour, suggests the party could win 31 seats, placing it in a strong position to challenge the long-standing Labour dominance in Wales. Labour, which has led the Welsh government since 1999, faces growing discontent over policies like the controversial 20mph speed limit and leadership instability following Mark Drakeford’s departure. Despite these issues, Labour remains a formidable force, with a long history of political dominance.
The 2026 elections will see the number of Senedd seats expand from 60 to 96, offering Reform UK a better opportunity under the proportional system. With the Welsh government struggling to pass a budget and opposition parties gaining strength, a potential early election could tip the balance of power. If successful, Reform could hold the balance of power and prevent coalition-building between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Plaid Cymru, or even a Reform UK-Conservative deal.
And at a Westminster level, polls and polling sub-samples indicate that Reform are breathing down Labour’s neck – with many seat forecasting models suggesting that the party could become the largest in Wales.
Reform’s surge so far this year has been nothing short of remarkable, with the party doubling its support since July 2024 and challenging both Labour and the Conservatives in their heartlands. Their growing influence and seemingly unstoppable momentum, is complemented by a strong social media presence and expanding reach in Scotland, Wales, and amongst millennials. With Reform leading in the average of opinion polls and seeing historic levels of membership, could they truly reshape British politics and challenge the status quo, or will it be a flash in the pan that comes crumbling down once Farage leaves the stage? Perhaps it doesn’t have to succeed in a general, Holyrood, or Senedd election to reshape UK politics – we are already seeing the other parties morph and mould themselves around Reform. It has exposed deep challenges in our country that will likely form the narrative of our politics for decades to come.
