Last week, the Policy Liaison Group for Regeneration & Growth hosted a roundtable on New Town delivery, and what a reimagined New Town regime might look like in the 21st century. This event was kindly hosted by Lee Barron MP, himself a champion of and representative for one of the more successful New Towns, perhaps the most successful beyond the Greater Southeast. I would like to thank Lee and our attendees, in particular the University of Manchester’s Dr David Mountain, Centre for Cities’ Maurice Lange, Sovereign Network Group’s Sara Waller and LPDF’s Sam Stafford for their contributions which have been key in informing this blog.
The New Towns Taskforce and the Government’s vision
The Government’s New Towns Taskforce is, this summer, expected to release its shortlist for the first round of its New Towns, a keystone of the Government’s housing agenda. It is fairest for the Government to speak for itself:
“The primary objective of the new towns programme is to create new and expanded places and thereby boost economic growth and the supply of new homes – spreading opportunity and supporting strong communities.”
With this in mind, will the Government’s plans work? It depends on the timescale. If New Towns are meant to contribute to the 1.5 million homes the Government has promised to deliver by the next election, then they will be drops in the ocean. Imagine for a moment that Peabody’s Thamesmead development is given New Town status. Assuming it continues with its current plan, by 2028 it hopes to have built 5,600 homes, or approximately 0.37% of the Government’s target. The Government is only looking at starting twelve new towns, so even assuming each is similar to Thamesmead in size and progression (which they will likely not be), then we will still only be talking about around 4.5% of total housing delivery in the UK. Quite satisfyingly, that is roughly the same proportion as was achieved at the zenith of the New Towns movement, in the 1970s. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
More than just a housing initiative
In short, then, New Towns will not solve the housing crisis. Not least, of course, because if the above situation happens, which is incredibly optimistic and relies on slapping badges on in-progress developments, then we will not be increasing housing delivery at all, only derisking and guaranteeing housing delivery already in the pipeline.
And lo, the moderate might responsively think that New Towns are a gimmick – and to an extent they probably are. But to radical pragmatists, which is what this Government aspires to be, it is far more. Because if the housing aspect to New Town delivery is long-term and secondary, then the short-term and primary aspect is growth. And New Towns have huge potential for growth.
Regional growth through strategic development
As we have seen, New Towns historically, as presently, have not been a mechanism for dramatic upticks in housebuilding in a national context. But in a regional and strategic context, they have been immensely influential. Centre for Cities’ research into land value capture potential in New Towns has found that annual housebuilding rates in places with new towns has consistently superseded that elsewhere. To quote their study, “the fastest 14 growing local authorities in England between 1950 and 1973 all contained new towns or expanded towns programmes. Between 1974 and 2000, the fastest 10 all contained new towns or expanded towns.”
This is an opportunity, therefore, for strategic place-led development, rather than unstrategic house-led development. It is an opportunity to create local jobs, benefit local supply chains, and provide key local skills opportunities for young people. It also has the long-term potential of bringing greater investment and commercial and economic opportunities for places currently lacking them. This is something that some historic New Towns have failed to capture.
Lessons from Peterlee, Corby, and Milton Keynes
We have some great examples of the pros and cons of this method. Peterlee and Corby were initially rather successful New Towns that, unlike many in the Greater South East, had key strategic industrial benefits for the wider economy. Peterlee, unique in that it was asked for by the local authority rather than proposed by national government, provided vital accommodation for those working in the nearby coalmines. Corby, meanwhile, became an important manufacturing hub, specialising in steel.
When these industries became less strategically important to the government of the time, both locations struggled – Corby to such an extent that it saw government intervention. This intervention, essentially, rewired Corby and aimed at injecting economic growth opportunities and manually diversifying its economy. Peterlee, meanwhile, did not receive support, and as a result in 2019 over 70% of households had at least one form of educational, employment, housing or health deprivation.
In contrast to both, Milton Keynes, which never had an industrial heritage branded into its narrative, and rather was economically diverse from the get-go, has been far more successful – not only the largest New Town (or, since 2022, New City), but also one with “high wages and relatively affordable family housing”. This meant that unlike industrial New Towns, it had no steel or coal industry to lose. Of course, an added advantage for Milton Keynes is its location, near enough to be commutable to London, Oxford and Cambridge.
Building purpose into place
One lesson we can learn from earlier New Town rounds, then, is that there are two main ways to futureproof New Towns: by making them economically flexible, and strategically located. Corby, moreover, proves that we can inject industrial strategy into that aspect as well, although the particular sub-lesson we ought to learn there is that pulling the rug out from under such a settlement by deliberately quashing its arterial industries without any impetus for innovation or diversification is a bad thing to do.
A New Town, then, as this Government should look to build one, is one which will be able to accommodate economic flexibility—whether this be a key industrial opportunity like defence manufacture, green energy creation, or even a nuclear SMR factory, or a wider amenity provision for service or location-unspecific industries, in the form of WeWorks, communal workspaces or office and warehouse space.
This ought to be the top consideration of any New Town delivery: to quote Kevin Costner, “if you build it, they will come”. Build reasons for these towns to exist, and they will appear as if from nowhere.
