The early stages of Andy Burnham’s time in Downing Street were somewhat removed from the usual realities of government; the summer recess afforded him breathing space to settle in as Britain’s Prime Minister. So far, he has been keen to cultivate a sense of optimism and belief within UK politics, a strategy which yielded the so-called ‘Burnham bounce’. Consequently, principles and broad ideas have led his communications strategy, as has been the case for most of his career outside of Westminster.
There is a palpable tension between Burnham as Mayor of Greater Manchester and the PM desired by the bond markets. Throughout his political life, the PM has consistently, and unapologetically, echoed Old Labour talking points; in his speech to the commons on 1 September, he reiterated that the last 40 years of British politics have been the ‘wrong track’ for Britain. This, in conjunction with his straight-talking style of politics, earned vast support as Mayor of Greater Manchester.
Whilst successful to this point, Burnham’s conviction politics has occasionally landed him in hot water; his credibility as a national political figure was tested by his comments that Britain should not live in hock to bond markets. With parliament back in session and a budget on the horizon, the PM will soon feel the weight of the international financial-economic system first-hand.
What does public spending look like under Burnham?
In accordance with his long-held beliefs, Burnham has championed the expansion of public spending in various forms. For example, a £2 cap on bus fares was announced during the summer along with £442 million of spending towards getting all homeless people off the street by Christmas.
Larger-scale issues, by contrast, are more challenging. Burnham has consistently called for the ‘public control’ of Thames Water. Currently, this is proving easier said than done; potential legal challenges have slowed progress, a fact which has left some disgruntled within the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).
The issue of Thames Water encapsulates a pivotal dynamic within Burnham’s policy plans: the balancing of stakeholder interests. On almost all socioeconomic issues, there will likely be a trade-off between fiscal responsibility and the opinion of much of the PLP. This is a fine line, one which was not deftly trodden by the Starmer administration; constant, public deliberation on the Two Child Benefit Cap, as well as ill-fated attempts to reform Personal Independence Payment (PIP), undermined the previous PM’s authority. Burnham will hope that his politics of optimism, characterised by comparatively strong communications skills and charisma to that of his predecessor, can carry him through any comparable issues that arise.
Perhaps the most significant spending issue right now is how swiftly the UK will increase its defence budget. This proved to be a divisive issue for Starmer’s government, with John Healey resigning as Defence Secretary due to lack of a coherent and sufficient defence spending plan. Healey, now Chancellor of the Exchequer, has seemingly declined to include a 3% GDP target for defence spending in this year’s Budget. The government remains committed to spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, but trust in long-term goals will surely remain low given the flexibility of current targets.
Taxation: cost of living concerns amid international pressures
On the other side of the fiscal coin, many are asking how the government intends to fund its spending projects. The difficulties of this task are two-fold.
Firstly, the Burnham government has inherited an electorate fed up with the cost of living. This has increased calls for the government to reduce, or at least not increase, the tax burden. So far, these calls have been notably unanswered.
As with spending, the PM was quick to announce targeted, yet limited, tax measures from the outset. Chief among these was a cut to energy VAT, saving the typical household £45 per year, the funding of which came from scrapping Starmer’s digital ID scheme, albeit former Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones confirmed this was never costed up. Furthermore, the Burnham government announced a decrease in business rates for pubs, social clubs and live music venues. These measures have been welcomed by many, yet their limited scope and scale illustrates the fiscal bind presently facing Number 10.
Secondly, when viewed through the prism of geopolitics, Burnham’s troubles become clear. Worsened by the US-Iran War, government bond yields are high across large economies. Given that the UK government already spends over £110bn per year on interest payments, further increases to gilt yields make tax threshold freezes, or even rate rises, more likely. The US-Iran war has also increased the inflationary pressure on the UK economy, with the current 3.1% rate exceeding the upper bound of the Bank of England’s desirable range, likely worsening the public resentment shown towards any increases to the tax take.
Social issues and their challenges
Government cannot live on fiscal policy alone, especially not in 2026. Culture wars, and the very real issues which inform them, require clear action from Downing Street. This is perhaps where Burnhamism will be at its most recognisable. Within two weeks of Parliament’s return, the government changed its position on Israel-Palestine, banning products from the occupied West Bank and, crucially, declaring the occupation ‘unlawful’. Furthermore, Burnham, via Ed Miliband, has adopted the position that ‘ethnic cleansing’ of Palestinians is taking place at the hands of ‘settler terrorists’. This represents a significant change, even if more in rhetoric than policy, from the platitudes of the Starmer administration.
At home, Burnham still has immigration to contend with. Despite small boat crossings being down 43% on last year, anti-immigration fervour remains strong. As new routes across the channel open up, with the coordination of protests increasing in kind, this is not an issue the PM will want to brush under the carpet.
Conviction politics continues to win favour for the prime minister; his refusal to work with The Sun after their misleading representations of the Hillsborough disaster has proved popular within the Labour electoral coalition. However, a principled stand against a newspaper is one thing, striking the right balance on immigration, an issue almost as electorally important as the economy, is quite another.
Fundamentally, the PM cannot completely insulate his government from the present international situation, nor can he expect to be immune from the political debates that preceded his premiership. Many of the policies announced so far, whilst a sign of intent, will not change the macro dynamics of British political-economic affairs. Throughout his career, Burnham has succeeded because of his ability to connect with people, gaining their faith in his intention and capability to make people’s lives better. As the scrutiny applied to his administration increases amid Parliament’s return, party conference season and the Autumn Budget, his powers of persuasion and policymaking will face what is surely their greatest challenge yet.
