It’s May 2025. A new Pope has been elected, Tottenham have just won the Europa League and the Conservative party is polling at 16%. There might have been a time where Tottenham winning a trophy and the Conservative party sleepwalking into obscurity would have been unimaginable, but every now and again lightning does strike twice.
The grand old man of British politics had struggled to find his footing, unable to wake from his slumber. And while he slept, outside on the horizon, there seemed to be not just a wave forming, but a tsunami, gathering pace with a shade of turquoise about it, coming for us all. The de facto opposition for a time seemed to be Reform UK, polling at 29%. Britain without the party of Thatcher and Churchill was seemingly becoming a reality. How would the Tories ever rip off the label “14 years of chaos” and close the gap on this 13 point chasm?
Enter Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke Badenoch.
These past six months have shown how the Tory party has reaped the rewards from sticking with their leader, something Manchester United should take note of. They currently boast their highest level of support in two years, polling in a recent survey at 24%, just two points behind Labour. Many think tanks note that a crossover has taken place before our very own eyes between Reform and the Conservatives. Since May 2025 the Tories are up four with Reform down seven, sliding into 3rd with polling at 21%.
Now whether Reform were pushed or tripped down that slope is up for debate. The Conservatives believe success lies in pledging to tax less, and reducing state involvement by evolving from a nanny to a night watchman role. Perhaps the Conservatives’ greatest asset is Badenoch herself, whose leadership has become central to the party’s renewed electoral appeal. In Darwinian fashion she has adapted to survive the environment she is in, by returning the party to its traditional values. Noticeably promising to abolish stamp duty, reducing inheritance tax and currently being the only party to have a funded plan for 3% defence spending by 2030.
Alongside all of the above, Reform has been riddled with “alleged” sleaze. To quote Rachel Reeves “if he wants to spend all summer arguing with a bin, I won’t stop him”. Dodgy crypto donations and undercover stings stole the headlines, paving the way for Kemi to keep her head down and crack on with business as usual.
Admittedly, Kemi did struggle in the first six months, with critics saying she was too slow to refresh the party. Even reflecting on when Starmer told her she would not last the year, and he would be in power for a decade. “Life comes at you pretty fast”.
At this year’s party conference, Kemi launched “The Right Way”, which may as well have been titled “My Party, My Way”. Stamping the party as her own and rightly so. Would the Tories be where they are without her? I think not. Speak to any shadow cabinet member and they will thank and point to Kemi for galvanising the party, by acting as someone to follow into battle (or at least the next general election).
Crucially, the Conservatives are now winning the psychological battle. They are not just the opposition by name anymore, but by nature. This will allow them to attract right leaning tactical voters, who may view them as best placed to stop Labour, particularly as 41% of Reform supporters would be willing to vote Tory to keep Labour out.
And to those of you (yes, you mum) who just say “unite the right”, then I point you towards Kemi who passionately stated “we are not uniting with that”. That door is clearly closed, marked with a sign outside saying “Reform MPs not welcome”. However, for the electorate, Badenoch is a concerned mother, wanting you to just come home (T’s and C’s apply, must have a ballot paper in hand marked with an X in the Conservative column).
There is still a long way to go, and a lot of voters to win over before she can start eyeing up the keys to No 10. Ballooning welfare, illegal immigration, overcrowded prisons, an underfunded military, eye-watering national debt and a lack of trust with the electorate are all issues she must tackle head on.
In dealing with these issues, she might, just might, be able to convince the country that the Tory party, under her new, nostalgic, stewardship, are the ones to deal with this mess.
I’m sure a normal guy from Manchester who likes The Smiths will also try and have a say in all of this. But ultimately if Kemi keeps distancing herself from the chaos of the past, it may be ‘back to the old house’ for her and her party.
